I am participating in a crowdfunding project: The making of a new album by The Men They Couldn’t Hang. Was this a wise investment? I identified five possible outcomes to try and answer that question:
A) It’s all a scam, they spend the money on Nintendo and Vodka, and I find out about it.
B) Three possiblities with the same end result.
- It’s all a scam, they spend the money on Nintendo and Vodka but I don’t find out about it.
- The project fails and they don’t manage to produce a record.
- They produce a crap record.
C) They produce a record with one or two decent songs.
D) The record is really good
E) The record is a magnificient masterpiece.
So now all that remains is to put a probability and a value for each outcome.
A) 1% | -100 €
B) 40% | 0 €
C) 40% | 20 €
D) 18% | 200 €
E) 1% | 2000 €
So I should contribute 63€ to the project.
There are some perks that could have a value in themselves, but stuff like a signed banjo or curry in Manchester doesn’t really appeal to me.
Q: Couldn’t I just free ride on the others and get the benefits anyway?
A: Don’t be ridiculous